Why use 2030 as a time horizon?
When we think strategically about the future of policing it may be attractive to think about what policing will look like in 50 years. That has a real ring to it. And that time frame probably works well for science fiction writers. However, the longer your time horizon is the fuzzier the future looks and the less practical your forecast will be. We just don’t have good ways of accurately looking out that far. We think that 2030 is a useful and realistic time horizon for thinking about the future of policing in a way that allows for realistic planning and discussions.
Policing practitioners, policymakers and interested community members will find the year 2030 an invaluable marker in their planning for the future. It gives police leaders enough time to adapt to changing social attitudes, technologies, and challenges while mid-term planning and resource allocation become easier. While sufficiently long to allow for strategic thinking and planning, this time frame is not overly lengthy. The longer strategic time frames we use to think about the future, the more murky future things become. In this section we explore what we think will occur in the near future and focus on 2030 as the endpoint for useful forecasting.
Crime control strategies may shift substantially by 2030 with greater emphasis being placed on technology-enabled community engagement, predictive policing techniques and restorative justice measures; cross-border collaboration could increase as police battle transnational crimes such as cybercrime. And, clearly, the use of artificial intelligence will play a major role in both police strategies and the forces that impact policing.
Technology trends by 2030 will include, but certainly not be limited to, drones, advanced biometrics, augmented reality, DNA profiling and advanced artificial intelligence, all of which come with ethical considerations around bias and privacy. Other influences such as social diversity, economic disparities, political shifts and climate change will all have an effect on policing practices; police agencies need to understand these potential changes so they can evolve in ways that protect both public safety and individual rights.
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