The rapid intensification of hurricanes: knowledge cops don’t know they need
In police work, cops are used to things going from zero to sixty in the blink of an eye. In most cases, they receive training they can draw on to help them deal with rapidly accelerating circumstances. However, where weather is concerned, most people use their personal experiences to help them understand what’s going to happen and how to deal with it. If you grew up in the northeastern part of the U.S, for instance, you understand the implications of a weather forecast indicating a significant snow storm will hit soon and you prepared accordingly. Our changing climate has created weather dynamics that just living in an area may not have prepared you for. For example, in August 2023 Hurricane Hilary was projected to wallop Southern California. Yes, Southern California, the land of sunshine, palm trees and mild weather. Sure, it has its history of earthquakes and wildfires. But a hurricane? Seriously? It is highly doubtful that any SoCal agency trained its officers in hurricane dynamics, which, had it happened as forecast (it didn’t), would have seriously increased the risk level for first responders.
When cops encounter novel situations for which they have no life experiences or training to help them understand what they’re facing, tragic outcomes can occur. There are heartbreaking examples of officers dying in structure fires, wildland fires or even tactical situations for which they had no actionable frame of reference. Another way to think about this is to use a futures study phrase and consider them “low frequency, high impact events.” These events hardly ever happen (so there may not be adequate training) but when they do, there are tremendous consequences. This can be the case with our changing weather conditions. If Southern California were to suddenly start experiencing significant tornadoes, they would undoubtedly generate many stories of police “near misses.” Given the right conditions, rapid intensifying hurricanes happen very fast and puts first responders at-risk unless they understand the implications of the rapidly changing weather system in which they find themselves.
In this article, we explain a meteorological phenomenon called “rapid intensification” of hurricanes and some of the challenges it presents to policing. This condition is occurring more frequently as our weather systems continue to change. Without adequate understanding of this phenomenon, cops – especially those working anywhere near the coast – are at-risk of getting themselves into situations they may not be able to get out of. Accordingly, forward-leaning police agencies will augment their existing officer survival training with critical information about the behavior and implications of extreme weather conditions.
What is the rapid intensification of hurricanes?
Rapid intensification (RI) is a meteorological occurrence wherein tropical cyclones, like hurricanes, experience an abrupt surge in wind speed over a relatively brief time frame. According to the National Hurricane Center's definition, rapid intensification refers to any increase of at least 35mph (30 knots or 56 km/h) within 24 hours that increases maximum sustained winds by at least 35 mph (30 knots is approximately 56km/h).
The consequences of rapid hurricane intensification on emergency preparedness have been extensively documented by academic and government publications. For instance, the National Hurricane Center frequently discusses issues surrounding rapid intensification and its effect on community preparedness.
Here are a few key traits of RI:
Wind Speed: RI can cause the maximum sustained winds of the storm to increase significantly and become even more hazardous, increasing its danger significantly.
Pressure Drop: An indicator of RI is typically marked by a dramatic reduction in central pressure, signaling that storm systems have grown stronger quickly.
Heat Exchange: RI often relies on complex exchanges of heat and moisture between ocean waters and atmosphere - often made possible through warm ocean waters - that lead to rapid intensification.
Difficulties in Forecasting: One of the key difficulties associated with rapid intensification is its unpredictability; even using advanced models, meteorologists often struggle to forecast exactly when and how a storm will intensify.
Local Effects: Rapid intensification can drastically change the expected impacts of hurricanes on an individual region, including storm surge, wind damage and rainfall amounts - making it challenging for emergency managers and locals alike to plan properly in advance of storm impacts.
Seasonal and Geographic Variability: Tropical Cyclones can strike in any ocean basin that experiences them; however, rapid intensification occurs most commonly at certain geographical locations during particular times of year when ocean waters reach their warmest point.
RI poses significant difficulties in preparedness and response as its unpredictable nature makes its effects unpredictable, often worsening storm severity with little warning or advance notice. To compound this challenge, the research and literature on policing during rapid intensification is relatively scarce. Accordingly, the issues presented here are derived from generally accepted emergency management principles.
The challenge to policing
Clearly, the rapid intensification of hurricanes poses a considerable challenge to policing. Here are a few of them:
Limited Preparation Time: Rapid intensification is one of the key characteristics of tropical storms or hurricanes, leaving governments and emergency services little time to prepare effectively in advance of an onslaught of extreme weather.
Forecasting Uncertainty: Due to rapid intensification's unpredictable nature, meteorologists often struggle with providing accurate forecasts. Misleading forecasts could result in resource misallocation; for example deploying first responders in less-affected areas while neglecting more severely-impacted locations.
Risks to First Responders: Rapidly intensifying storms present greater risks to first responders, including police officers. Rapid intensification is accompanied by stronger winds, heavier rainfall and more extreme conditions than initially forecast, placing first responders in greater peril during rescue operations. For example, during Hurricane Harvey in 2017, a Houston Police Department sergeant drowned in his police car while responding to the emergency. Agencies should consider this factor into their planning in order to protect their personnel.
Public Awareness and Evacuation Management: Rapid intensification can create situations in which the public doesn't have adequate time to prepare or evacuate, even with warnings given. This may create heavy traffic congestion and the possibility of road accidents, bottlenecks along evacuation routes, endangering more lives than previously anticipated. Police agencies often assist with mandatory evacuations, which require quick mobilization of officers and resources in order to ensure public safety. Rapid intensification can shorten this time frame significantly.
Strain on Resources: Responding to rapidly intensifying hurricanes often necessitates an outpouring of human and material resources that strain local capacity, necessitating swift mutual aid agreements as well as federal assistance agreements. As storms intensify quickly, police agencies will need to constantly reassess and reallocate their resources. This may involve moving personnel, setting up emergency response centers and prioritizing high-risk areas.Emergency services often preposition assets like food, water and rescue equipment in response to initial forecasts. A sudden intensification can render these plans obsolete quickly enough that quick reevaluation and redistribution is often necessary.
Human Factors: Psychological preparedness is an integral component of disaster preparedness. A sudden storm's rapid progression can quickly overwhelm both authorities and the general population, prompting panic or paralysis and inhibiting disaster response mechanisms from functioning efficiently.
Communication Barriers: Rapid-emergency situations necessitate flexible communication networks to coordinate rescue and relief efforts efficiently and quickly. However, existing systems may become overwhelmed. Cell systems can be overloaded and land lines non-functioning. Establishing effective communication channels between emergency services and the general public becomes even more essential during a hurricane event. The police will likely need to disseminate fast-changing information regarding its status, evacuation routes and safety precautions quickly and reliably. This is an instance in which government-supported General Mobile Radio System (GMRS) radio repeaters can literally save lives. Low-cost, easy-to-use GMRS radios, with access to local repeaters dramatically increase community self-sufficiency, reduce the drain on emergency services and allow citizens to communicate among themselves to enhance situational awareness.
Inter-Agency Collaboration: Law enforcement agencies must coordinate effectively with other first responders, local governments and federal agencies. As rapid intensification occurs in this collaboration, adaptability and quick decision making must be present within these partnerships for efficient results.
Public Trust and Accountability: How law enforcement agencies react to rapidly shifting conditions can have long-term effects on public trust. Transparency, accountability, and effective communication are crucial for maintaining positive community relations.
Crime Prevention: Natural disasters unfortunately present an opportunity for criminal activities like looting. Rapid intensification may limit law enforcement agencies' time available for protecting vulnerable areas.
Crowd Control: Panic can often lead to situations requiring crowd control in emergency shelters or during evacuation, making the unpredictable nature of hurricanes imperative in training police for such scenarios.
Training and Protocols: Traditional training programs and response protocols may not adequately equip responders to address the unique challenges posed by rapidly intensifying hurricanes, necessitating real-time adaptations that may prove error-prone and stressful for first responders.
Legal Implications: Rapid intensification could pose legal hurdles that law enforcement must be prepared to navigate, such as disputes over mandatory evacuations, civil rights concerns and jurisdictional issues that law enforcement must be ready to manage.
Financial Constraints: Rapidly changing conditions can exponentially increase disaster preparedness and response costs, which can prove an obstacle for local governments with tight budgets.
Conclusion
The rapid intensification of hurricanes poses significant challenges to nearly every aspect of emergency preparation and response - from forecasting and public awareness through resource allocation and the safety of first responders. Policing’s response to rapidly intensifying hurricanes requires adaptability, extensive planning, and inter-agency coordination. Since these events can often be unexpectedly unpredictable, police agencies must create training curriculum, flexible strategies and documented protocols to meet their unique demands effectively.