Why use 2030 as a time horizon in planning for future policing?

The state of policing in 2030 will depend on many different factors, including social, technological, economic, environmental and political shifts. Valuable insights for police practitioners, policymakers and the general public can be gleaned by exploring possible scenarios along each of these dimensions. Here's a selection - and our brief commentary - of just a few of the important issues regarding Policing in 2030 that should be considered.

Benefits of the 2030 Time Frame

Realistic Timeframe Planning: Establishing a 2030 vision gives policing ample time to adapt to shifting demographics, technology and public attitudes while not being so far out in the future that forecasts become so speculative as to be almost useless (except to stimulate thought and discussions).

Recruitment and hiring: When generational interests, needs and concerns of the generation entering the policing workforce by 2030 are identified and planned for, workforce recruitment and retention becomes easier. Assuming future police candidates have the same issues as past or current ones may very well serve as a recipe for failure.

Resource Allocation: Recognizing reasonable future trends can assist the police with efficient allocation of limited resources.

Legal and Ethical Readiness: By anticipating possible challenges and opportunities in advance, leaders can effectively establish ethical and legal guidelines related to new technologies and methods of operation.

Current and Future Strategies to Prevent Crime and Disorder by 2030

Future Community Policing: Community engagement will continue to evolve into more of an interactive, two-way exchange between police and citizens via technology such as social media platforms, virtual townhalls and other platforms. Increasingly, the police will be better listeners of community concerns and perceptions and translate that knowledge into action that builds trust and confidence.

Better Crime Analysis and Predictive Policing: With big data and machine learning at their disposal, predictive policing could become more nuanced and effective while taking ethical considerations regarding bias and privacy into account into account.

Restorative Justice: Our focus may shift away from punitive measures towards more rehabilitative and restorative approaches that engage communities in this process. The police should be part of that and adopt a “Peace Officer Mindset” compelling a greater emphasis on resolving public safety problems than simply arresting people.

Cross-Agency Collaboration: With the rise of transnational crimes like cybercrime, police agencies across regional, state and country boundaries will see more collaboration.

What Does Future Police Technology Look Like?

Technology is going to play an increasingly important, or at least, more prominent, role in every facet of our society. This will also be true in policing. Future posts on this subject will elaborate on the multiple facets of this issue, but here are just a few of the more immediate and prominent technological issues, or opportunities, police leaders have.

Drones and Robotics: Police agencies may increasingly rely on drones for surveillance, crowd monitoring, and even delivery of non-lethal deterrents. Already, police departments are using drones to respond to calls for service along with officers. In almost all of those instances, the drones arrive on scene before the officers. This allows for critical real-time information about the situation to be relayed to responding officers. In the future, as large passenger- carrying taxi drones become prevalent, we can expect to see the police employ ambulance-like drones, capable of immediately transporting wounded officers or civilians to the hospital. This will replace the “scoop and go” strategy used in many cities of police officers taking critically injured officers or civilians to an emergency room rather than waiting for an ambulance to arrive.

Advanced Biometrics: Biometric technologies have expanded beyond fingerprints to facial recognition and gait analysis and now offer new ways of identifying individuals. The advances in this technology are expected to continue and provide more timely and accurate identification capabilities. A major concern here is that ethical guardrails are developed to contain their use in constitutionally correct, and community-accept ways.

Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR): AR and VR can help advance policing in a variety of ways. For example, by providing essential details during tactical operations, such as providing immersive experiences for officers to better understand building layouts prior to entering, officer safety can be improved. Through the use of VR technology, officers could experience immersive, “trading places” experiences that might very well increase their empathy to people with either a mental illness, or a demonstrated lack of trust in the Police.

AI and Machine Learning: These technologies could assist with data analysis, crime prediction and administrative tasks but may present ethical hurdles. This is such an important, and complicated issue, that we will explore this much more in-depth with additional posts as well as through a separate Center on Policing and Artificial Intelligence (COP-AI) on this website.

Factors Affecting Policing in 2030

Social: Increasing diversity, changing attitudes toward police, and generational shifts will have an effect on policing strategies.

Technological: New technologies will present both opportunities and threats; for instance, improved investigative tools might present advantages while cybercrime might pose threats.

Economic: Economic variables like unemployment rates, social inequality and public funding levels for police will have direct and indirect effects on crime rates as well as public attitudes towards law enforcement agencies.

Environmental: Climate change will increase disaster response deployments by police personnel after extreme weather events.

Political: Political movements that emphasize either populist/nationalist ideas or more liberal, community-focused policies could shape how policing is carried out, funded, and regulated. The polarization of America is not likely to abate any time soon and it will continue to have impacts on policing.

Conclusion

In 2030, we can expect the world of policing to look very differently from now. By studying possible changes now, policing can better prepare themselves for the near future and contribute towards creating a safer and more equitable society. In this way, policing is better positioned to become more effective, empathetic and just.