Black Swan Events

Black Swan events (BSE’s) are defined as events which are highly unexpected, exceptionally impactful and having lasting repercussions across various domains. One example is the disclosure by the government that we are not alone in the universe. Black Swan events in policing can strain resources, force rapid changes to operational protocols and pose significant threats to public order - challenging preparedness and resilience in police agencies.

Police departments can experience multiple impacts from Black Swan events, ranging from legal complications and budget strains to personnel mental health consequences and issues with the public’s trust and confidence in the police. Given these challenges, policing must engage in proactive planning and training exercises, establish robust communication systems and foster interagency collaboration to better prepare themselves and manage these unpredictable scenarios (which are likely to increase in the future).

Possible BSE’s that will assuredly affect policing, and the strategies the police can use to prepare for them, are examined in this section.